Will the U.S. Attack Iran

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Are we going to war with Iran?

This is the million-dollar question on everyone's mind. Obviously, only the President and his inner circle of decision-makers know the real answer. However, the massive military buildup we've observed across the Middle East over the last few weeks suggests the potential for conflict is very real. Until recently, the force composition was missing a few key aircraft (in my assessment) for any credible operation against Iran. We'll get to that below.

The “Red Lines”

But first. President Trump has outlined four key requirements for Iran.

1. No nuclear weapons

2. Significant reduction in ballistic missile force

3. Stop using proxy forces in the region

4. Stop the oppression of the Iranian population

There's plenty of debate around these "red lines" and how realistic they are. The nuclear question in particular has analysts scratching their heads. The U.S. claimed to have set back the Iranian nuclear program as recently as last June, yet Iran is now reportedly "within a week of having a nuclear weapon." The contradictions are hard to square. Regardless, the one point of clear consensus from Washington is this: Iran will not be permitted to possess nuclear weapons. The details, of course, are far more complicated.

The Missing Players

Until this past week, two critical aircraft types were conspicuously absent from the regional buildup — the F-22 and the Block 50/52 F-16. F-16 Block 40s were present in theater, but not the Block 50/52 variant, which performs the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) mission — a.k.a Wild Weasels. That changed recently. Twelve F-22s (and twelve more on the way) have now arrived in Israel, and 30 F-16 Wild Weasels are operating in the area. To put that in perspective, that's a five-times increase in Wild Weasel presence compared to Operation Midnight Hammer.

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With the F-22s and Wild Weasels now in place, the U.S. appears to have all the required air assets for an operation. Whether those assets support a surgical strike versus sustained operations is a separate conversation entirely. But without the F-22 within striking range to establish air dominance, any serious operation was a non-starter. Similarly, the F-16 Wild Weasel remains indispensable for kinetic SEAD — the ability to physically escort strike packages into high-threat environments and destroy enemy air defense systems.

Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD)

Modern SEAD is a team effort. Cyber, space, the F-35, the EA-18G Growler, and several other platforms all work in concert to disrupt, degrade, and suppress enemy air defenses. But when it comes to putting iron on target in a contested environment, the F-16 Wild Weasel remains the workhorse. Its arrival in force is the clearest signal yet that this buildup is more than posturing.

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