NATO Tosses E-7 | "Cheap" Anti-Drone Missiles | Threat: Su-57

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE 🎯 

NATO Backs Out of Wedgetail Buy, Leaving AWACS Future in Holding Pattern

European NATO members have dropped plans to acquire a fleet of six Boeing E-7 Wedgetail aircraft after the U.S. Department of Defense pulled its support (more below on that), citing rising costs, delays, and survivability concerns. The move leaves the alliance without a confirmed path to replace its aging E-3A Sentry fleet based in Geilenkirchen, Germany. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
Did we think we would write six newsletters this year featuring E-7 drama? No, but here we are. The U.S. withdrawal effectively collapsed the multi-national procurement effort, forcing European partners back to the drawing board just as the 1970s-era E-3A approaches the end of its service. But…placed inside the Continuing Resolution to end the 41-day government shutdown, the E-7 was placed on life support. $200 million snuck its way inside the CR to fund the E-7 prototyping for the DoD through January.

But why cancel it when the AWACS is so old? True, cost overruns were part of the equation, but cost overruns rarely stop large defense programs. The real question is survivability. Modern surface-to-air missile systems, drone wingmen, advanced air-to-air missiles, and other weapons have reshaped the air picture. If Pakistan shot down Indian fighters with air-to-air missiles at more than 125 nautical miles, how is a 737-based surveillance aircraft supposed to survive in that environment?

An E-7 with a MESA radar would still be a massive upgrade compared to the E-3. Every fighter would rejoice at not hearing “Darkstar midnight” which is the not-so-uncommon call from E-3 crews telling you their radar is down. The pace of change in the battlespace has accelerated so fast that even a good solution can feel outdated by the time it reaches the ramp. We are now seeing a new emphasis on rapid procurement with the ability to flex as threats emerge and evolve.

🎯 Air Force Eyes $500K Missile While Cheaper Drone Killers Already Prove Themselves

The Air Force has asked industry for concepts to build a “counter-air” missile costing under $500,000 with annual production rates up to 3,500 units. The idea is to create a low-cost, high-volume interceptor for drones and emerging air threats. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
Laser-guided rockets like APKWS II, which cost about 15-20K each, have been widely used across the Middle East to swat drones at a fraction of the price. That begs the question: are we trying to solve a $20K problem with a $500K answer, or is there a tier of threats emerging that rockets simply can’t handle?

From a fighter-pilot lens, there are a few things worth watching:
🔺 APKWS has been effective but could struggle as drones get faster, smarter, and more autonomous.
🔺 A $500K missile only makes sense if it fills a gap between cheap interceptors and high-end AMRAAMs.
🔺 Speed matters. If procurement drags, the threat may evolve faster than the solution.

This could be the right move, but only if the Air Force builds something quickly, cheaply, and at scale. Otherwise, it risks becoming another missile designed for a problem that’s already changed.

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Turkey confirms 20 soldiers killed in C-130 cargo plane crash in Georgia. (more)

🚩 Air Force taps AI to optimize munitions storage, aiming to cut 50,000 man-hours and reduce errors. (more)

🚩 Images suggest China is building its first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the Type 004, following the launch of the Fujian-class carrier. (more)

🚩 An unverified social-media post by @IranObserver0 hints Iranian pilots are now in Russian training on the Su-57. (more)

🚩 Russian intelligence ship spotted roughly 15 nautical miles south of Oahu off Hawaii’s coast. (more)

🚩 Footage shows the wings detaching from a Turkish C-130E as it spirals down into Georgia from 24,000 ft. (more)

🚩 Taiwan to receive first U.S. MQ‑9B SkyGuardian drones in 2026. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

Threat: Sukhoi Su-57
Country of Origin: Russia
Initial Operational Capability: Limited IOC achieved 2020
Primary Role: Stealth multirole fighter for air superiority and strike missions
Proliferation: Russia, Algeria (export contract confirmed. Rumors of Iran (see above snapshot). The T-50 (Su-57 prototype) has made several international appearances at tradeshows over the last few years. On the way back from Zuhai Airshow in Nov 2024 the T-50 was pictured on the ramp in Iran.

Variants:
🔺 Su-57 baseline production model
🔺 Su-57M upgraded version reportedly featuring improved avionics, engines, and weapons integration
🔺 S-70 Okhotnik teamed configuration planned for manned-unmanned teaming

Range: Approximately 1,500 NM (ferry range over 2,000 NM reported)
Speed: Estimated top speed around Mach 2
Payload: Up to 22,000 pounds across internal and external stations
Weapons: Including R-77-1 (AA-12 Adder), R-74M2 (AA-11 Archer) and future K-77M missiles; export discussions include anti-radiation/air-to-ground weapons.
Propulsion: Twin Saturn AL-41F1 engines, with the future Izdeliye 30 engine intended to improve thrust and reliability
Stealth Features: Reduced radar signature through shaping, internal bays, and radar-absorbent materials
Sensors: N036 Byelka AESA radar suite with multiple arrays enabling wide field of view
Defensive Capability: Infrared search and track (IRST), electronic warfare systems, distributed apertures

Recent Combat Activity: Limited operational use reported over Ukraine, including air-to-air missile employment from standoff ranges

Fun Fact:
Only a small number of Su-57s are believed to be fully operational, making it one of the least numerous fifth-generation fighters in service despite being in development since the early 2000s.