War with Iran: How We Landed Here

Edited by Sidney McAlear

On February 27th’s Newsletter, we asked: Are we going to war with Iran?

The answer: Turns out, yes.
If you missed it: 2/27 Newsletter: “Will the U.S. Attack Iran”

How Did We Get Here?

Last week, the United States and Israel launched one of the most significant military operations in modern history against Iran. For many people, this seemed to come out of nowhere. It didn't. To understand why we're here, you need to go back — not just to last last week, last month, or last year, but to 1941.

The Road to Today

1941 — During WWII, Britain and the Soviet Union jointly occupied Iran to secure its oil supply lines and prevent Nazi Germany from gaining access. The reigning Shah, Reza Shah Pahlavi, is seen as too sympathetic to Germany and is forced into exile by the Allies. His 22-year-old son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, is placed on the throne. Iran exits WWII under Western influence and firmly in the pro-Western camp.

1951 — Iran's democratically (as close to democracy as Iran has been at least) elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, nationalizes Iran's oil industry, which had been controlled for decades by Britain through the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Britain is furious. The U.S., eyeing Soviet influence and Cold War positioning, sees a risk.

1953 — The CIA and British intelligence (MI6) orchestrate a coup — Operation TPAJAX — overthrowing Mosaddegh. The Shah is reinstalled as an absolute monarch with U.S. backing, U.S. firms receive roughly 40% of Iranian oil rights, and Iran's CIA-trained secret police (SAVAK) enforce order.

1953–1979 — The Shah rules as a pro-Western autocrat. U.S. military and economic aid flows into Iran. Iran serves as a key Cold War counterweight to the Soviet Union. By the 1970s, Iran is one of the wealthiest nations in the region.

1979 — The Islamic Revolution. Mass protests paralyze the country. The Shah flees Iran in January. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a Shia cleric who had been exiled for over a decade, returns to a crowd of millions and establishes the Islamic Republic. The religious clergy seize control. Within months, Iranian students storm the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and hold 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

1980–1988 — Iran-Iraq War. Saddam Hussein invades Iran. The U.S. backs Iraq. Over one million people die. Iran emerges battered but ideologically hardened.

1988 — Operation Praying Mantis. The U.S. Navy conducts offensive operations against Iran in the Persian Gulf after Iran mines international waters and nearly sinks the USS Samuel B. Roberts. The U.S. sinks two Iranian frigates and destroys multiple naval platforms in a single day.

1979–2025 — Iran's grand strategy takes shape: no conventional military can match the U.S., so Iran builds an asymmetric network instead. Proxy forces in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq, Syria, Yemen (Houthis), and Gaza become Iran's long arm. Ballistic missiles become the deterrent. A shadow nuclear program becomes the ultimate card.

June 2025 — Operation Midnight Hammer. Seven B-2 Spirit bombers fly 18 hours from Whiteman AFB, Missouri. For the first time in history, the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is used in combat. Fourteen of them drop on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

February 28, 2026 — Operation Epic Fury begins. The U.S. and Israel launch joint strikes. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed in the opening hours. Dozens of senior regime and IRGC commanders die with him. Iran retaliates within hours.

Who's In This Fight?

Offensive operations against Iran: United States | Israel | Qatar | UAE (unconfirmed)

Active defensive participants (intercepting Iranian strikes, hosting U.S. forces): Saudi Arabia | Qatar | UAE | Kuwait | Bahrain | Oman | Jordan | United Kingdom

Newly entering the picture: France — Rafale jets have been deployed to protect French bases in Abu Dhabi after Iran struck Camp de la Paix. A French carrier group is moving toward the Mediterranean.

Third U.S. carrier inbound: USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group is preparing to deploy from Norfolk — that would put three U.S. carrier groups in the region simultaneously. Originally thought to maybe replace the USS Gerald R. Ford, it now appears it will be an addition as the Ford has moved further into the Middle East

The Scoreboard | What's Happened on the Battlefield:

U.S./Israel offensive:

• 3,000+ targets struck inside Iran by U.S. forces in the first week alone (CENTCOM, March 9)

• 900 U.S. strikes in the first 12 hours — nearly double the opening day of "Shock and Awe" in Iraq in 2003

• ~75% of Iran's mobile missile launchers destroyed or neutralized

• 43+ Iranian naval vessels destroyed or damaged

• Khamenei, the Minister of Defense, the IRGC commander, and dozens of senior officials were killed

Iran's retaliation (as of March 7):

• 2,000+ drones launched across the region

• 500+ ballistic missiles fired

• Iranian missile launches down 90% from opening phase

• Iranian drone launches down 83% 

• All six GCC states simultaneously struck — first time in history a single actor has done this

• UAE alone: 174 ballistic missiles tracked (161 intercepted), 689 drones detected (645 intercepted) — the UAE has been the most transparent in releasing numbers

• Strait of Hormuz: Effectively closed. Tanker traffic dropped to near zero by March 2. 150+ ships anchored outside the strait. All major shipping lines — Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM — have suspended transits.

• Oil hit $114/barrel. Qatar declared force majeure on LNG contracts.

• 8 U.S. service members killed in action

📺 Catch Up | Video Series

What We're Tracking This Week

🔺 Succession: Khamenei's son Mojtaba is reportedly being positioned as successor. Whether a hardliner consolidates power or a more pragmatic figure emerges will shape the next phase entirely.

🔺 The USS George H.W. Bush: A third U.S. carrier group entering the region is a significant escalation signal. Watch whether it changes Iran's calculus or hardens it.

🔺 France's Naval Coalition: France is forming an international escort coalition for transit through the Straight of Hormuz. If that gains traction, it starts to reopen global shipping — and takes a major pressure point off Iran's hands. Watch who joins.

🔺 Gulf State Fracture Lines: Quiet conversations are happening among GCC governments about the cost-benefit of U.S. basing. The Soufan Center is reporting that Gulf officials have begun reviewing force majeure clauses in current contracts. If a Gulf State publicly distances itself from the coalition, that's a strategic win for Iran without firing another missile.

🔺 Proxy Activation: Hezbollah has resumed strikes on Israel. Iraqi Shia militias have launched drone attacks on U.S. forces. The large-scale proxy activation hasn't happened yet. Watch northern Iraq and Syria.